Predictive Safety of Tailings Dams: Integration of Critical State Testing with Numerical Modelling and Real-Time Monitoring

GTC has had the privilege of supporting the geotechnical characterisation and performance assessment of tailings storage facilities (TSFs) across various projects.
Tailings, the fine-grained by-product of mining operations, are particularly susceptible to seismic loading and changes in surface or groundwater conditions. The combination of seismic events, heavy rainfall, poor construction, and inadequate maintenance poses significant risks to tailings dam stability. These geotechnical hazards have led to catastrophic failures, as seen in past disasters such as Brumadinho and Mariana in Brazil (2019 and 2015), the Mount Polley failure in Canada (2014), and the Fundão dam collapse in Brazil (2015).
To address these risks, consulting engineers are increasingly adopting integrated strategies that combine high-quality laboratory testing, robust design supported by predictive modelling, and advanced field monitoring systems.
A central component of this approach is the determination of the Critical State Line (CSL), which plays a key role in liquefaction analysis and numerical modelling. Accurate CSL definition enables engineers to assess the behaviour of tailings materials with greater reliability, especially in evaluating the potential for static or cyclic liquefaction.
Our test results are used by clients to calibrate numerical models of TSFs, accounting for staged construction, hydraulic conditions, and evolving field behaviour. Through our in-house testing procedures, we provide high-quality, reliable data that support the safety and long-term sustainability of tailings operations.
This integrated risk management framework offers greater confidence in predicting dam performance and responding proactively to changing field conditions, and it has become common practice in modern tailings engineering.
For further information, please feel free to contact us.